Thursday's GB News broadcast turned into something of an uncomfortable reality check for anyone still holding onto the idea that the US-Iran conflict is heading toward a clean, quick resolution.
Lt. Col. Stuart Crawford, a defence analyst with decades of military experience, joined the morning desk to break down where things actually stand and his assessment was sobering.
"Iran is not defeated and the war has not been won," Crawford said plainly, pushing back against the rosy picture Trump has been painting publicly.
Nobody Knows What the Goal Actually Was
One of the more striking points Crawford raised was the absence of a clear strategic objective from the very beginning of the US offensive.
"We still don't really know what the US was actually trying to achieve," he said. And that lack of clarity, he argued, is now coming back to haunt Washington in a serious way.
What everyone did know and what Crawford noted was always the obvious wildcard was Iran's ability to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.
"That was always going to be Iran's trump card," he said. "And it looks like the Trump administration has stumbled into a conflict it can't find its way out of."
Two Paths Forward Both Messy
When co-host Ellie Costello pressed him on what comes next, Crawford outlined what he sees as the two ends of the spectrum and neither option is clean.
The first: Trump declares some form of victory, walks away, and leaves the resulting chaos for others to sort out. Crawford acknowledged that might be politically convenient for Trump in the short term, but said it "will not suit the rest of the world."
The second option is far more drastic a full-scale military push to force the Strait of Hormuz back open and militarily defeat Iran. But Crawford was blunt about what that would actually require.
"That would mean a massive military effort and almost certainly ground troops," he said. "Which, of course, nobody wants."
The November Clock Is Ticking
Crawford also touched on the political dimension that's impossible to ignore. With US midterm elections looming in November, Trump will be under real pressure to have this conflict in the rearview mirror or at least out of the headlines.
"He'll want to be well clear of this before the elections, if he can manage it," Crawford said.
The timing pressure is compounded by Trump's upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. According to Costello, Trump has reportedly threatened to resume airstrikes if no deal is reached before that summit a move that would contradict his own stated desire to end the conflict quickly.
A Negotiated Settlement? Don't Hold Your Breath
Despite the obvious desire on all sides to avoid further escalation, Crawford wasn't optimistic about a diplomatic breakthrough either.
"Everyone wants a negotiated settlement," he said. "But I don't see one on the horizon."
It's a stark conclusion and one that raises serious questions about how the world's most powerful military ended up in a conflict with no clear win condition, no obvious exit, and a political deadline fast approaching.
When you have child molesters and drunks running things this is what you reap. Not to mention a heroin addict running the health of America.
ReplyDeleteAmericans who truly thought that putting this idiot , yes foolish knucklehead back in office after his prior antics in his previous administration was a better idea over his competitor citing “the better of two evils” well for all those who assisted in the effort of returning him to the White House don’t bitch and complain about his ignorance and utter lack of intelligence, We the people of America put this man where he is and deserve everything that happens to us for the time he is there, how on Gods green earth can so many be so wrong about the choice that was made and yet cry we things go sideways, the citizens of America itself needs an eniama, and acknowledge the roll in which we played in all this chaos, try eradicating racism for a change instead of the useless war on drugs, curtailing free speech, and redistricing states to gain a favorable outcome for votes, while our so called supreme leaders sit on their asses weighing in on matters that don’t even require their opinion, but what the hell this is America, we deserve every bit of turmoil coming our way because of the past decisions made, so sit back, strap in, and hold on til this ride is over and we’ll deal with what things look like and where they are in two years.
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