If you remember Trump's first trip to Beijing back in 2017, it was nothing short of spectacular. China pulled out every stop military bands, flag-waving children chanting "Welcome," an exclusive private tour of the Forbidden City, and a state banquet where Xi played footage of Trump's granddaughter Arabella singing in Mandarin. Trump became the first foreign leader since the People's Republic was established in 1949 to receive treatment that was historically reserved for emperors. Beijing called it a "state visit-plus."
This time, don't expect that level of grandeur.
When British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited the Forbidden City just a few months ago, Xi didn't even show up the monument stayed open to tourists and Starmer was navigating through crowds like any other visitor. That contrast says a lot about where things stand.
Jonathan Czin, a former NSC director for China under the Biden administration and now a fellow at Brookings, put it plainly: "Even before this whole conflagration with Iran, they weren't going to go state visit-plus like last time, just because things are tense."
The Iran Problem Nobody Can Ignore
One of the biggest shadows hanging over this summit is Iran. When Iranian forces blocked the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, it rattled global markets and drew the U.S. into armed conflict. Trump tried and failed to get Beijing to help reopen the strategic waterway. China, which is Iran's largest oil buyer, wasn't playing along on American terms.
What Beijing did do, however, was use its financial leverage over Tehran to help nudge Iran toward a fragile ceasefire. It wasn't a favor to Washington it was in China's own economic interest. A prolonged war near one of the world's most critical oil routes is bad for everyone, but especially for a Chinese economy already forecast to grow at a slower pace.
If China ends up playing a serious role in securing a lasting peace, that gives Xi real leverage heading into trade negotiations. And you can bet Beijing knows that.
The Tariff Tangle Is Far From Over
Trade has been the defining friction point between these two powers for years. During Trump's first term, he announced $250 billion in trade agreements during that 2017 trip deals that were largely non-binding and, in many cases, never followed through. A $200 billion deal package from 2020 also fell flat before his first term ended.
More recently, Trump's sweeping global tariff rollout triggered a sharp Chinese response: Beijing halted purchases of American soybeans and moved to restrict exports of rare earth minerals that U.S. manufacturers depend on. Things have cooled somewhat since a trade truce last fall, but the underlying tensions haven't gone away.
The White House insists Trump's earlier hardline stance on tariffs later struck down by the Supreme Court still puts the U.S. in a position of strength. "President Trump cares about results, not symbols," said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly. She added that Trump "doesn't travel anywhere without bringing deliverables home" and that Americans should expect good deals to come out of the Beijing visit.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sounded a cautiously optimistic note as well. "I expect great stability in the relationship," he said. "But that doesn't mean our trade deficit can't continue dropping."
Playing the Long Game Both Sides Are
Here's where it gets strategically interesting. Czin believes Chinese officials may deliberately hold back on major concessions right now. The thinking in Beijing, he suggests, is that as U.S. midterm elections approach, American political pressure on Trump will intensify and China's leverage will grow. Republicans are already working hard to hold onto their congressional majority, with polls showing that many Americans are unhappy with Trump's economic direction and feel the country may have overstepped in Iran.
Ali Wyne, a senior U.S.-China adviser at the Crisis Group, offers another angle. Xi, he notes, "appreciates that he is unlikely to deal with another U.S. president who admires him as greatly." That mutual admiration however transactional it may be gives Xi an opening to secure as many economic and security concessions as possible while the window is open.
At the same time, the Chinese delegation will almost certainly engineer the visit to make Trump feel like he's just had the greatest diplomatic triumph of his presidency. The pomp will be there. It just won't mean the same thing it once did.
A Relationship Built on Mutual Calculation
Trump has never been shy about his regard for Xi. In a 2024 interview with the Wall Street Journal's editorial board, he described Xi as someone he "got along with great" carefully stopping short of calling him a friend, but clearly meaning something close to it. He's even suggested in the past that Xi's personal respect for him might be enough to deter Chinese military action against Taiwan, though he has more recently floated the idea of selling arms to Taipei a sharp contradiction that Beijing hasn't forgotten.
For his part, Xi is no sentimentalist. In January, he oversaw a military purge that included removing officials with deep personal ties to his own family a move that underlined his belief in loyalty to the state over personal relationships. As Czin noted, Xi simply doesn't do "personal connections" the way Trump values them.
What Comes Next
This Beijing summit could be just the beginning of a busy diplomatic stretch. After the trip, Trump plans to host Xi at the White House. He may also attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November in Shenzhen. And Xi could potentially show up at the G20 meeting the following month at Trump's Doral resort in Florida making it possible the two leaders meet four times within an eight-month window.
Whether all of those meetings actually happen is another question. Czin pointed out that Xi, like Trump, isn't particularly fond of traveling, so some of these encounters may not materialize.
What's clear is that both sides see value in keeping this relationship functional even if their interests only partially overlap. For Beijing, a Trump who admires Xi is far more manageable than one who doesn't. For Washington, a China willing to trade and negotiate beats one that's fully adversarial.
The hugs metaphorical or otherwise may come. But in great power politics, a hug is rarely just a hug.
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